Where The Cubs Stand Right Now

So here we are, halfway through the season.  Actually, the Cubs have played 95 games, so they are closer to 60% of the way through the season.  They sit 4.5 games ahead of the Cardinals and 5 games ahead of the Brewers.  So, at this point, it’s a 67 game season and the Cubs are spotted 4.5 games.  So what are the odds they take the division?  How safe do you feel with that lead?  I feel nervously confident.  I have a feeling that defines how most Cubs fans feel right now. 

Let’s look past all the history of failure and heartbreak, though.  Let’s set that all aside and pretend that we root for a normal baseball team.  One without jinxes or curses swirling around.  According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs have a 80% chance of winning the division and a 92% chance of going to the playoffs.  Am I that negative and pessimistic that 92% concerns me?  I mean, the Cubs have the best line-up in the division and the National League, if not the best lineup in all of baseball.  They are practically unbeatable at home…unless Manstrength or I are there.  They have no major long term injuries right now.  Soriano will be back soon and although I am not a big Soriano fan, I have to admit that the lineup is more potent with him in there.  Plus, the Cubs added the second most desired pitcher on the mid-season trading block.  There is nothing but blue skies ahead right? 

On June 28th 1977, the Cubs beat the Phillies to bring their record to 47-22 and putting them 8.5 games up in the division.  After the game, Lou Boudreau said that once a team gets 25 games above .500, the team will never see .500 again in that season.  On this date (July 17th) in 1977, the Cubs had a .607 and were 19 games over .500.  Right now, the Cubs are at .600 and 19 games over .500.  The Cubs ended the 1977 season 81-81 (.500) and 20 games behind the first place Phillies. 

That is one of many reasons that I am nervously confident.  Anything can happen and when you cheer for the boys in blue, nothing is guaranteed.  I don’t expect a major collapse, but the past won’t allow me to be truly confident.